WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — Even though we’re spending most of our time tailing various Republican candidates for president this week, it wouldn’t be a Friday without the Line.
This week we tackle the gubernatorial playing field. The 2007 races — two of which occupy our top spots on the Line — are already intense and will heat up even more once Labor Day passes. Remember we’re just 72 days away from the open primary in Louisiana and 89 days from the Kentucky general election.
We can barely wait. In the meantime, check out the Line to tide you over. As always the number one ranked race is the most likely to switch parties. Compliments, criticisms, and analysis are welcome in the comments section below.
To the Line!
5. Washington: Having accepted that former state senator and 2004 gubernatorial nominee Dino Rossi is going to be the Republican candidate in 2008, Democrats in the state are working hard to discredit him. The state Democratic Party has filed a complaint with the state’s Public Disclosure Commission alleging that Rossi’s Forward Washington group is functioning as a campaign committee. Rossi himself seems content to stay on the sidelines until the fall. And, if a recent Moore Information (R) poll is right, Rossi needn’t be in any hurry. The survey showed incumbent Chris Gregoire leading Rossi 47 percent to 43 percent, a margin nearly unchanged from a February Moore Information poll that showed Gregoire with a 46 percent to 43 percent lead. Whenever Rossi decides to formally enter the race (and make no mistake, he’s running), he will start in a deep financial hole. He also faces a significant national headwind in a state likely to go for whoever the Democrats nominate for president. Still, the narrowness of his 2004 loss means this is a race to watch. (Previous ranking: 5)
4. Indiana: Everything we’ve heard from state and national Democrats over the past few months indicated that Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger was the heavy favorite for the party’s nomination. Then former Rep. Jill Long Thompson (D) released a survey conducted by respected pollster Pete Brodnitz that showed the former Congresswoman in the lead with 33 percent followed by state Sen. Richard Young at 12 percent and Schellinger at eight percent. On one level, the results are understandable. Thompson has represented Indiana in Congress and appeared on the ballot as recently as 2002 when she lost to then Rep. Chris Chocola (R). Schellinger has never run before and, as a result, almost no one in the state knows who he is. Schellinger should have the fundraising prowess to make sure voters know his name and positions — he raised $1.2 million in the second quarter of the year — but Thompson’s poll shows that she remains a serious candidate. As the Democrats prepare for a bloody primary, Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) continues to stockpile cash. Still, Daniels’ job approval numbers aren’t all that great and Indiana went strongly for Democrats in the 2006 election. (Previous ranking: 4)
3. Missouri: A decision issued by the Missouri Supreme Court reinstating campaign contribution limits could have a HUGE impact on the already-competitive contest between Gov. Matt Blunt (R) and state Attorney General Jay Nixon (D). At issue now is whether the candidates must return past contributions in excess of the new limits. If the Court rules that refunds must be made, Blunt stands to lose nearly $4 million while Nixon will give up $1.1 million. That would essentially zero out Blunt’s financial advantage, which, to date, had been one of Republicans’ strongest selling points for his re-election bid. Republicans argue that the political environment in state continues to improve for Blunt and that he enjoyed a successful legislative session. This one will likely go down to the wire. (Previous ranking: 3)
2. Louisiana: The Bayou State race remains in the second slot for the second straight month as state Sen. Walter Boasso (D) continues to show a willingness to put his money where his mouth is. Boasso, who has already dumped a hefty sum into his television ads, recently sold his company for $60 million — freeing up scads of money for him to spend on the race. A poll done for Boasso’s campaign shows Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) still over the magical 50 percent mark needed to avoid a Nov. 17 runoff — but with the Democrat gaining. The key for Boasso is to peel off enough support from Jindal to keep the Republican under 50 percent on Oct. 20 and hope he can coalesce Democrats and Indepedents around his runoff candidacy a la Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) in 2003. Republicans say that Jindal’s numbers remain strong and that his image as a reformer seeking to bring change to a corrupt system continues to resonate. (Previous ranking: 2)
1. Kentucky: We don’t think former Lt. Gov Steve Beshear (D) is leading Gov. Ernie Fletcher by 21 points, as a recent Survey USA poll showed the race. But it seems clear that the challenger is ahead of the incumbent at the moment. During his primary challenge from former Rep. Anne Northup (R) Fletcher seemed to find his political stride and has been receiving rave reviews for his performance on the trail. When the general election begins in earnest, however, Beshear will make sure voters know about the ethical problems that dominated the first four years of Fletcher’s gubernatorial tenure. Fletcher weathered those attacks in the primary but that was when reliably Republican voters were the target audience. Now Fletcher needs to find a way to convince independents and even some Democrats that he can still be effective. (Previous ranking: 1)